There's lots of talk these days about the wisdom of crowds and how various AI-enabled web search technologies help us cut through an exponential expansion of knowledge: the already-all-but-infinite data caches that we're collectively building and making available to anyone knowing how to tap or click (not to mention the untold wealth that we're creating for the owner/operators of the underlying algorithms and on-line engines that index it all). But, there's an even more elementary, even primal: the kind of wisdom that's handed down through the ages in proverbs and aphorisms. They're often dispensed by caring mothers, and others; this kind knowledge is often more metaphorical than literal in nature and usually a bit imprecise. But it's almost* always as true as it useful. (* sadly, "true" can be, and often is, distorted by any number of well-meaning policies and programs that themselves often bring unintended consequences).
In the case of healthcare, it's hard to say how "precise" the 16-to-1 (efficacy ratio of prevention/cure) really is; it depends a lot on the age, demographic and assorted other circumstances of the folks in question. But, I think, it is fair to say that for those folks "soon-to-be more concerned about the aggregate costs of their families' health" (see previous posts), the cheapest short-term strategy is to stay healthy (and/or, at least, to discover earlier, and better manage, the inevitable afflictions awaiting us all).
I began this thread with the above-referenced post containing what was, for me at least, something of an epiphany: the real issues pending in American healthcare have more to do with cost (that will drive Access and Supply) than medicine or "well-meaning" (but ultimately misguided) public policy. In the end, no one is going to be any more comfortable with the government's rationing of finite resources than they are with today's [insurance] Plan Managers'. The exponentially expanding array of apparent cures (suddenly available only to the rich or otherwise clever) are going to make the situation worse still ,and sooner still, than most incumbent politicians realize!
Subsequent posts touched upon the longer-term Pink Mountain phenomenon seen (or "not") in the Gordian Knot that is healthcare; add in the somewhat unexpected "Megatrends" (compliments to Ron Bachman's appended Comment), to the Global Groundswell [or widespread return to individualism apparent in any number of public and private arenas] and a troubling but somewhat better picture begins to appear (or "not"). For, a "Pink Mountain" (our generalized pattern of ignoring irrational`no matter what you do, the situation will only get more irrational' kinds of problem) there's cause for hope in the same "exponential" that's driving apparent cures and costs higher: e.g., as Ray Kurzweil and others eloquently proffer, the same sort so unforeseen technological advances, that "exponentially" delivered the world from any number of Malthusian catastrophes in the past, will handily handle the world's health in the future? And, the later, "global groundswell" [of individualism] augers well for the larger and widening cause of healthcare consumerism (Download
Logical, Verbal & Graphic Theorem on HoIP Value D3v3) being introduced here. Indeed, some helpful observations from my old friend Mark Feidler over breakfast this morning prompts me to re-name the presumptuous prescription (introduced in my last Full Circle post) in his honor. So here is the Feidler Formula (F²) again...(expanded)
Inasmuch as I've already summarized this semi-tongue-in-cheek prescription (in the previous post) I'll use the rest of the space here to take a little deeper dive into the "(PH)⁴" numerator; and, then, I'll close with a few strategic questions that I'd like to pose in posts to follow.
Maybe we can simplify the mock-math equation above by calling the whole thing HealthDIY? For, what we're talking about here, in the first "P4" term
(Download P4 Idea In Brief2), is how folks can take more effective Participatory action; and, the second "F4" term, involves the motivational forces that may lead them to act. The Web 3.0 denominator (Download The Web 3.0 Idea In Brief2), of course, refers to new web-based search and serious social networking platforms that are now emerging to support such an agenda
`more on P4 and Web 3.0 in future posts. Let's take a quick look here at "F4": i.e., the Fear, Fortune, Fame & Fun "motivators."
Proportions of these ingredients present will vary by individual. But, for most of us, some combination of the first two will rule: i.e., some will fear ill health, others will fear losing their family fortune (to eventually ruinous healthcare), others both. On the other hand, one of the less-told modern-day internet stories is how and how much everyday people like to "share what they know." Web sites like ShareWIK.com, for example, provide ample evidence of how the open source movement is reviving the commons based peer production of bygone eras. In other words, in almost incomprehensibly-large numbers, people enjoy helping one another and in gaining the reputation that often attends being a real and perceived thought leader. Occasionally, such "reputations" lead to small fortunes; but, in most all cases, its the personal gratification of making a difference in someone else's wellbeing and esteem that completes the participatory Web 2.0 (cum 3.0) loop.
Turning now to the enterprise level, the question becomes how and who have the most to gain (or lose) in a HealthDIY future? I could fill pages with Clay Christenson-esque critiques on the "disruptive technology" effects that have, up to now, plagued healthcare consumerism. Moreover, so far we've not seen much of the would-be Web 3.O "disruptors": Where is the Apple equivalent to create an iHeath[DIY]?
I'll close with that for now; and, hopefully, I'll get a few more comments before delving yet deeper into the soon-to-be wide-wide-world of HealthDIY (and more on the Feidler Formulae that animate it;-). In the interim, I'll leave you with but three questions:
- If not things like HealthDIY, what other realistic hopes do we have to truly "bend the [health cost] curve?
- What does "unsustainable" mean if not that something radically different (a.k.a., "disruptive") isn't in the offing?
- How will life (and healthcare-related businesses of all kinds) ever be the same: i.e., when the avalanche of Healthcare 3.0 (a.k.a., HealthDIY) 3.0 hits?
